• Combined new contract activity fell from 1,014 contracts in 2025 to 860 this year, a decline of 154 contracts, or 15.2%.
• All six jurisdictions were lower, although the range was unusually wide. Prince George's was virtually flat at -0.7%, while Loudoun declined 28.3%.
• The regional weighted average days on market increased from 44.3 to 46.7 days, or 5.4%. Northern Virginia was essentially unchanged at 37.5 versus 37.6 days; everywhere else except Loudoun took longer to sell.
• Year-to-date, the region has recorded 42,286 contracts compared with 43,377 last year, a deficit of 1,091 contracts, or 2.5%.
• Across the six jurisdictions, contracts below $300,000 actually increased from 83 to 97, or 16.9%. By comparison, the $300,000–$499,999 category fell 11.2%, $500,000–$749,999 plunged 30.7%, and $750,000–$999,999 declined 9.2%.
• So there really was unusual strength at the very bottom of the price spectrum.

• The broader story hasn't changed much. Higher mortgage rates are putting pressure on affordability, and the market has responded with fewer transactions.
• Northern Virginia declined 12.3%, Montgomery 13.8%, Washington, DC 17.7%, Prince William 26.5%, and Loudoun 28.3%.
• Then there's Prince George's County: 141 contracts last year and 140 this year. After several difficult weeks, being down one contract almost qualifies as a victory.
• But the most intriguing number in this report may be that under-$300,000 category. Northern Virginia increased from 17 to 22 contracts, Montgomery from 21 to 28, and DC from 13 to 18. Prince William was unchanged, Prince George's was down only two, and Loudoun—where very little inventory exists at that price—went from one contract to zero.
• Combined, that's a 16.9% increase in the only price category that clearly improved across the region. But why?
• After a softer late summer and early fall, price reductions could be pushing some listings that previously sat just above $300,000 into the lower bracket. If so, part of this apparent strength would represent price migration rather than increased underlying demand—hardly something sellers would celebrate.
• But these contract reports don't tell us the property's previous asking price or whether it received a reduction, so we can't establish that from these data.
• There's another, less complicated explanation that probably contributes as well: when mortgage rates rise, affordability matters more. Buyers stretching to qualify may naturally gravitate toward the lowest-priced available properties. A higher rate can turn a comfortable monthly payment into an uncomfortable one surprisingly quickly.
• Most likely, we're seeing some combination of affordability-driven demand, the particular inventory available that week, and possibly price reductions moving properties into lower brackets.
• Whatever the cause, one week's increase in sub-$300,000 contracts isn't enough to call this a positive market trend. It's better viewed as an interesting clue about where demand is concentrating in an increasingly affordability-sensitive market.
• The recent anomaly of sharply lower contract activity without much movement in marketing time weakened somewhat this week. Northern Virginia was essentially unchanged at 37.6 days versus 37.5, but Prince William increased from 30.3 to 42.1days, Montgomery from 41.4 to 45.7, Prince George's from 54.1 to 56.6, and DC from 58.2 to 66.9.
• Interestingly, Loudoun went the other direction, dropping substantially from 57.9 to 42.2 days, even as its contract activity declined 28.3%.
• Weighted across the region, average days on market increased 5.4%, from 44.3 to 46.7 days.
• That's deterioration, but once again it's nowhere near the magnitude of the decline in contract activity. Volume is weakening considerably faster than velocity..
• And that remains an important distinction. There are clearly fewer buyers participating in the market, but the properties that successfully connect with one aren't universally languishing.

• Northern Virginia: 308 → 270 (-12.3%)
• Loudoun County: 106 → 76 (-28.3%)
• Prince William County: 132 → 97 (-26.5%)
• Montgomery County: 203 → 175 (-13.8%)
• Prince George's County: 141 → 140 (-0.7%)
• Washington, DC: 124 → 102 (-17.7%)
• Combined contracts: 1,014 → 860 (-15.2%)
• Weighted average DOM: 44.3 → 46.7 days (+5.4%)
• Combined YTD contracts: 43,377 → 42,286 (-1,091 contracts, or -2.5%) 

The market isn't giving us much reason for celebration right now. Rates are higher, contract activity is lower, and marketing times are beginning to creep upward.

But there are still almost 900 buyers who put homes under contract in a single week, Prince George's essentially matched last year's pace, and the lowest end of the market actually grew.

So perhaps the headline really is the story: the market could use a break. Preferably one measured in basis points.